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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence wins the prize. However, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest surprise.

Yet this year's competition is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising together. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and fun season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still